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Essay / Rising Renminbi: In Search of the Tripolar Trio
Systematic international trade has its roots in the powerful, trade-rich Roman Empire. In fact, the word “pay” comes from the Latin “pacare” which originally meant to pacify using an appropriate unit of measurement that appeased both parties involved in said transaction. Over two millennia later, imperialist Britain found itself in a similar position with the pound sterling circulating freely through its multiple colonies as the de facto mode of payment for all trade that took place while the colonies were n They were not allowed to export goods. The failure of the gold standard and the victory of World War II paved the way for the dollar. After World War II, facing a weakened Britain, a broken France, and a devastated Germany, the U.S. government adopted protectionist policies by undervaluing the dollar to boost international exports while imposing high tariffs. This allowed the US dollar to establish itself as the main international currency. Over time, starting in the 1970s, Japan supplanted Germany as the world's second-largest economy with booming international exports, leading to vast trade surpluses and enormous foreign exchange reserves. This phase petered out in the 1990s when the overvalued yen bubble burst, sending Japan into a phase of stagflation for the next two decades. Despite this, the yen, at its peak, accounted for only 9% of global foreign exchange reserves, as more than 90% of yen bonds were held domestically. The rise of the US dollar, regardless of the previously mentioned global events, has been fundamentally supported as a result. of the trifecta: highly developed financial markets that operate transparently, high levels of easily interchangeable liquid assets, and the support of a relatively stable, business-friendly government. Undo... middle of paper... your own destiny while traveling the path with the greatest dexterity and diligence. This brings me to the original question: will the renminbi become an international reserve currency? My answer would be a resounding and resounding yes! Since 2012, China has been in the first stage of its plan to internationalize the RMB by establishing itself as a trade settlement currency, after which it aims to become an investment currency before finally becoming a true currency. reserve. However, the timing and global conditions under which this might occur are very uncertain, perhaps 20 or even 30 years from now. Even so, it would be an addition to the dollar and the euro and not a replacement. All this is true, provided that China continues on the path of growth, liberalization and internal reforms without creating negative shock waves. The world watches as the crouching dragon raises its head.