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Essay / UK Economic Policy - 1470
Currently, UK monetary policy is based on an inflation target and central bank independence. Critically evaluate the extent to which the theoretical and empirical work of macroeconomists has influenced the current monetary policy framework. Developments in macroeconomic policy generally result from critical analysis over time, and each of the macroeconomists examined in this essay provided this to their predecessors. . In our current framework, it is obvious that the policies applied are all influenced, in part, by these economists. To understand the need for an inflation target, it is important to understand what the real costs of inflation are and why inflation needs to be controlled. The consensus view is that inflation, especially if unanticipated, has real economic costs (Snowdon and Vane, 2005). In terms of expected inflation, it is estimated that there will still be social costs. These are the cost of shoe leather and the cost of menus (Snowdon and Vane, 2002). Shoe leather costs are predominant due to increasing fixed deposits, in an inflationary environment, so the interest earned will partly offset the nominal costs of inflation. Menu costs arise from the cost of labor, paper and ink required to revise product prices due to inflation. The costs of inflation are more impactful when inflation is unexpected, which can lead to reductions in the real wage rate. The roots of the UK's current monetary policy framework, based on inflation targeting and central bank independence, can be traced back to Friedman's 1968 article, The Role of Monetary Policy. In this article, Milton Friedman reintroduced monetary policy as a viable method of managing the economy. He argued that the price level was the most important parameter in an economy, but recognized that it was also the most difficult to control due to the effect of time lags. In this article he also acknowledges the impact of time on economic research, stating: "Perhaps as our understanding of economic phenomena advances, this situation will change." ยป He stated this in reference to his comments on attempts to directly control the price level and the likelihood of these turning into monetary disturbances (Friedman, 1969). Friedman's preferred method of monetary management was to explicitly target the quantitative growth of money at a stable rate. According to him, the optimum would be between 3 and 5%. By targeting the growth rate in this way, he believed it would be possible to indirectly control the level of prices, ensuring that they rose or fell at a low, constant rate..