An in-depth study on civil war: models and real casesThe history of ethnic civil war consists of ethnic fragmentation that appeared along the societal path to globalization. Over time, humans have enabled in-depth study of variables and patterns in an attempt to theorize a historical model of civil war. Two important models, one constructed by Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler, and the other by James Fearon and David Laitin, have provided hypotheses about the causes of the Civil War based on social, economic, and political measures. However, as Horowitz says, "a bloody phenomenon cannot be explained by a bloodless theory", civil conflicts can never be attributed to a certain pattern; despite the general trend, chance events such as natural disasters and regional factors such as corruption would also diversify the scale of war in idiosyncratic ways. War models are essential for demonstrating correlations between variables associated with the theory and the risk of war. The econometric model constructed by Collier and Hoeffler, for example, provides a fair measure of war by demonstrating that opportunity is a source of conflict. It includes predominant variables such as exports of primary products, GDP per capita, GDP per growth and population. In most cases, low GDP per capita and low growth rate increase the risk of war because they provide a low opportunity cost for rebellion. This corresponds to the phenomenon that many countries that experienced civil war between 1960 and 1999 were poor developing countries such as Congo, Sudan and Zimbabwe. Yugoslavia also experienced an economic collapse in 1989, shortly before the outbreak of wars in 1992. An overall poor economy generated social tensions, leading to war. Meanwhile, a heavy reliance on Pr...... middle of article ......lict-1970-2008-2/.Collier, Paul and Anke Hoeffler. “Greed and Grievance in the Civil War.” Oxford Economic Papers 56, no. 4 (2004): 563-95. doi:10.1093/oep/gpf064.Couttenier, Mathieu and Raphael Soubeyran. “Drought and civil war in sub-Saharan Africa.” Paris School of Economics, July 2011. Accessed June 9, 2014. Fearon, James D. and David D. Laitin. “Ethnicity, insurrection and civil war”. American Political Science Review 97, no. 01 (2003): 75. doi:10.1017/S0003055403000534. Horowitz, Donald L. “Chapter 3.” In Ethnic Groups in Conflict, 140. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1985. Sambanis, Nicholas. “Using Case Studies to Expand Economic Models of Civil War.” Perspectives on Politics 2, no. 02 (2004). doi:10.1017/S1537592704040149.Sudetic, Chuck. “Chapter 6.” In Blood and Vengeance: One Family's Story of the Bosnian War, 75. New York: WW Norton, 1998.